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What's next on the road to the 2010 General Election?
At our ‘What’s next…on the road to the 2010 General Election?’ event on 9 June, a distinguished panel gathered to discuss the impact of recent election results, cabinet resignations and the expenses scandal.
Reviewing the likely fall out were:
- elections guru Anthony King from Essex University
- leading pollster Ben Page from Ipsos MORI
- political commentator Andrew Porter, Political Editor of the Daily Telegraph
They considered the circumstances in which Gordon Brown may himself decide to stand aside, whether the next election would be a good one to lose, and why it is that the electorate has lost faith in political institutions.
What will the result of the next General Election be?
A Conservative landslide is not impossible. The Conservatives should win the next General Election, the question is by how many seats. Although the party is struggling to break the all-important 40% barrier in the polls, the key factor is Labour’s dismal showing both in the polls and at the recent ballot box.
The Conservatives still need a significant swing to win power and are focused on an impressive campaign targeting key marginals. David Cameron’s visits to these seats is also starting to pay dividends.
…and who would want to win it?
2010 could be a good General Election to lose. The incoming Government is likely to have a torrid time on the economic front and will be forced into either spending cuts or tax rises. Either way, we will all be asked to make sacrifices.
If the Conservatives win, they will be forced to take drastic decisions. Within two years, Cameron could become as unpopular as Margaret Thatcher was during her first years in Government (a fact often forgotten), before the Falklands Conflict changed her fortunes.
Has David Cameron ‘sealed the deal’?
David Cameron is increasingly recognised as the Prime Minister in waiting. He is a strong media performer and will be the main focus in the Conservative’s General Election campaign. The frontbench team around him do not have his media presence.
Cameron could have had his “Clause 4 moment” by seizing the initiative over the expenses scandal and indeed using it as a broom to clear out some of the more traditional Conservative MPs. Like Tony Blair before him, Cameron is likely to attract support for actually changing his party rather than just improving its image.
Has the expenses scandal destroyed trust in politicians?
While the expenses scandal has clearly damaged trust in politicians, a lack of trust in the political class is not a new concept.
Even during World War II, an opinion poll in 1944 found that just a third of voters thought MPs put the national interest above their own personal interest. The major change has been over the perception of Government and its competency.
In the 1950s and 60s, most people thought the UK was governed in a (by and large) effective way. The difference, in 2009, is a significant loss of confidence in the effectiveness of Government – leading to disenchantment.
Public distrust is now made worse by growing hyper-partisanship in Parliament, seen in the weekly bout of Prime Minister’s Questions which often descend into shouting rather than debating policy.
Can Gordon Brown survive to the General Election?
Having survived the election results, resignations and plots, the likelihood is that Gordon Brown will lead the Labour Party into the next election, though questions over his leadership will not go away. Indeed they will probably intensify once again at the party conference this autumn.
It is possible, though, that Brown could decide to walk away of his own choice. It is said that he has never picked a battle he could not win so may choose not to fight. Alternatively, he may be persuaded to move if he were to get the tap on the shoulder from a trusted advisor such as Peter Mandelson or Ed Balls.
…and who will be the next Labour leader?
Whether before the next election or more likely following defeat, the new Labour leader will have a considerable rebuilding job to do as well as trying to balance the demands of both wings of the Labour Party.
The favourite and most likely to be able to meet this challenge is Alan Johnson, but Harriet Harman, David Milliband and Jon Cruddas cannot be ruled out. A dark horse candidate is Andy Burnham, who with his recent promotion and safe northern seat could come up on the rails.