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Electing London's Mayor
Overview
The result of the battle raging between Boris Johnson and Ken Livingstone is likely to have far reaching implications for
Ultimately what happens in
A Boris win also means
Key polling
Our poll of polls aggregation suggests that Boris is currently on 43.25% to Ken’s 40.8%. However given that most polls have a margin of error of 3% this election will go to the wire and is certain to be resolved on second-preference voting.
The concern for Labour is that Ken has consistently underperformed his polling – he was well ahead of the Conservatives in the polls last time round, but only beat his rival by a narrow margin when it came to polling day itself. Labour activists know that they must secure a good turnout on Thursday to have any hope of beating the Conservatives.
Implications of a Conservative victory
A win for Boris Johnson would be significant, and the clearest sign that Cameron’s Conservatives are on the road to victory at the General Election.
Boris is no policy expert so it is likely that expertise will be brought in from the key Conservative boroughs which are set to be much more influential than under Livingstone. Boris has taken a lot of policies from these councils and has a less developed vision and sense of independence than Ken. Expect key players like Merrick Cockell of Kensington & Chelsea and Sir Simon Milton of
David Cameron is also likely to place people in the Boris team to get some ‘real world’ political experience – think people like Nick Boles, the former director of Cameron’s favourite think tank Policy Exchange and Ed Staite, long term adviser to Shadow Chancellor George Osborne to bolster his team.
Implications of a Labour Victory
A Labour victory on Thursday would raise morale and allow the Labour Party to draw a deep collective breath, refocus and move on from the difficulties of recent months. Critically, it would deny David Cameron momentum and perhaps offer Gordon Brown space to restore his credibility, reassert his authority and revive Labour’s fortunes nationally.
For Ken, a win will enable him to continue to focus on the key areas of: transport, crime, affordable housing and the environment.
With London a key battleground at the next election, his ability to revitalise, renew and deliver in the capital will be critical at a time when the Labour Party is being accused of lack of direction, drift and indecision.
Ken’s team is likely to remain broadly similar, although it is doubtful that Lee Jasper, the controversial race adviser will be brought back. Livingstone’s tight cadre of advisors have been with him from the beginning, and as he showed with Jasper, he is extremely loyal to them. Key players will be Simon Fletcher, Ken’s right hand man and Neale Coleman, his influential director of business, planning and regeneration.
Implications for
One of the intriguing elements of the Mayoral contest is the likely split in votes between inner and outer London Boroughs. The Conservatives are hoping to turn the map of Assembly seats into a “ring of blue” around a small cluster of Labour seats in central
However, carving up
This will impact on the GLA result with the Conservatives hoping to increase the nine seats they secured in 2004, while Labour is desperately defending its previous tally of seven, with
Even if Ken wins, he faces the prospect of an opposition-dominated Assembly – while a Boris victory will offer the chance for him to work with his colleagues among the Conservative Assembly group and beyond in the Boroughs.
Crucially the GLA has never experienced a political change of administration and is much more politicised than local government. There are no real precedents in place for how this change would be managed, but it is a fair bet that a number of senior staff might be on their way out at the GLA, the LDA and at TfL. In a recent FT interview former Mayoral hopeful Steve Norris suggested that he might head up a Tory-run LDA.
Finally the British National Party is now polling at about 6%. If this holds it will be enough to give them an Assembly seat for the first time.
Wider implications
A change in administration at City Hall will have far reaching implications for some of the major infrastructure development projects in
A Conservative-held
Our view
Everything points to Boris. But the voting system is a tricky customer. If, as with the previous two Mayoral elections, no candidate gets 50% of the vote, then all second preference votes are transferred between the top two candidates. In theory the second preferences should work in Ken’s favour, with transfers from Greens and Lib Dems falling into Ken’s column, but ultimately it will come down to who, between Boris and Ken, is the least disliked between minor party voters.