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Briefing: Labour Party Conference round up
Make or break for Labour?
This year’s Labour Party Conference in
The mood music
The general mood amongst delegates was downbeat, bordering on fatalistic. Labour Party activists and officials appeared utterly divided on whether Gordon should stay or go and many felt that the government is heading for inevitable defeat at the next election. Damage limitation was a phrase used time and again from all factions. This is a total turnaround from twelve months ago when, with a new PM and a comfortable poll lead, the party felt it had smoothly managed the Blair-Brown transition and was getting ready for an early General Election it expected to win. The rest is history.
The Leader’s speech
Brown’s speech was definitely the highpoint, good enough on the day to lift the mood and to deliver some of his most positive media coverage for months. It also provided an immediate bounce with a YouGov poll indicating that the Conservatives lead has halved. However, on closer examination many on the right felt that the speech wasn’t radical enough and those on the left, including the unions want more detail on what fairness means for the low paid, and for tax rates. The shine was well and truly taken off by the resignation of Ruth Kelly the following day, and the shambolic handling of this news. The feeling remains that a fluffed reshuffle, a bad by-election result or a good week for the Conservatives in
PM in waiting or a ‘novice’?
By the close, there was even less agreement about an alternative to Gordon than there was at the start of conference. David Miliband ultimately had a disappointing conference, and he is arguably more a candidate of the media village than of the party membership, where he doesn’t have a strong base. Overall, there is no consensus amongst those wanting to see Gordon deposed early about who should replace him.
What’s in store for Brown: likely scenarios for Labour’s leadership
1. Brown goes before the next general election. The imminent reshuffle, the Glenrothes by-election and the European elections in 2009 are all pressure points and could trigger action to replace the PM. A crop of senior resignations would have much the same result. The outcome could be a move to install a New Labour fresh face or a safe pair of hands (Straw or Johnson) to guide the government to the next election. The latter option may still result in defeat but Labour hopes the scale would be lessened, allowing an immediate comeback for the party under a new leader from the next generation. If the coming generation (the Milibands, Ed Balls, Purnell and Burnham) get a chance before the next election, they may risk their future careers and in any case, all have more to do to resonate with the party’s grassroots and the unions.
2. Brown goes after general election defeat. This is arguably the most dangerous scenario for the Labour Party, as it could lead to a free-for-all amongst runners and riders for the leadership. Obvious candidates of the soft left - Jon Cruddas and John Denham - are both in danger of losing their seats if the Conservatives run up a substantial majority, while younger candidates risk cancelling each other out. It is unlikely that Johnson or Straw would want to lead the party in opposition, while Harman, who had a good conference, consistently gets mixed reviews as deputy leader.
3. Brown is the new comeback kid and wins the next election, or at least forces a hung parliament. Probably nothing more than a pipedream of Number 10 insiders but Brown would fight hard to remain as leader in this circumstance.
The policy detail
Most if not all of the new announcements were saved for the PM’s set-piece speech, including the approach to the global financial crisis. The Brown team are convinced that market turmoil opens up a political fault-line with the Conservatives, and provides the space to build a new fairness doctrine. Of course, the PM also turned the situation to personal advantage in the best line of his speech, “this is a no time for a novice”. On the substance, Brown outlined
• a (newly defined) public interest test for the application of competition rules
• the need to tackle the transparency deficit (in transactions between banks)
• new and more meaningful risk pricing (‘sound banking’)
• moves to look at better co-ordinated global regulation
On the domestic front, despite the economic climate some new proposals were outlined:
• 80% cut in carbon emissions by 2050
• Nursery provision for 2 year olds
• Online access for 1 million families
• Increased financial support to turn progress in medical research into treatments
• Free prescriptions for cancer sufferers from April 2009, and universal NHS check ups for the over 40s from April 2009
• New plans to help elderly stay in their own homes for longer
Reshuffle
Brown has very limited room for manoeuvre with this reshuffle. His authority is not sufficiently buoyed by conference, and the international economic crisis argues for stability. On top of this, there are rumours that some in Cabinet will act in concert if they don’t like the direction of travel. Reshuffle speculation is hazardous but there are a handful of key questions that will decide the make-up of the new team.
• Will Alistair Darling stay or go? His performance is considered patchy but the economy is the key challenge for the coming months, so stability may be the watchword
• Will loyalists and allies be promoted? Look out for movement for Ed Balls (if Darling is replaced), Shaun Woodward and perhaps Yvette Cooper (if Hazel Blears goes)
• How will Brown deal with senior players who are indicating they wish to remain in position? If Purnell, Miliband or Johnson refuse to move will we see resignations?
• What new talent will be brought in to refresh the team? Both Jim Murphy and Liam Byrne are being tipped for the Cabinet after impressing in current roles.